Growth and Volatility - Part I May 21st, 2008
To get better insight about why execution is such a tough challenge, we analyzed the quarterly and annual earnings performance of 200 companies over a twenty year period.
The following graph shows the annual earnings rate on the vertical axis. The horizontal axis shows the volatility produced by that growth. Volatility is another word for how predictable the growth was. The farther to the right the more Unpredictable the earnings performance is. The first thing we learned in this analysis was that as the growth rate increased beyond about 15% per year the volatility increases faster than the growth rate.
For example, when growth rate doubles from 20 to 40%, the volatility increases from 20% to 150% — a 7 fold increase. The faster a business grows the more unpredictable it becomes. So there is something about growth that makes execution more difficult.